ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for roughly 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, based on the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measure uses the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the largest contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank reported that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of the region’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four countries account for about 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP represents approximately 14% of the world’s extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one within the World Bank’s classifications where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
At the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan also experienced deterioration. The proportion of people below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching about 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018, according to World Bank data. The report attributed this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and a prolonged period of economic adjustment.
Poverty pressures intensify amid consecutive shocks
These latest findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million people to the region’s total estimated number of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
While Pakistan’s economic growth has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, poverty indicators continue to be high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26, with a forecast of 3.8% for 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is estimated at 7.1% in 2026, with a projection of 8.2% for 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
The regional classification influences the headline statistic
The 48% figure reflects the current World Bank classification of the MENAAP region, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Previously, World Bank regional data categorized both nations within South Asia. Pakistan’s government clarified that this change was administrative and statistical, and did not alter the country’s geographical identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the redefinition shifted regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also indicated a weaker regional economy in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, due to conflict and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade sectors. However, developing oil-importing countries like Pakistan remained comparatively resilient, with the update forecasting a 4.3% growth rate for that group in 2026. Nonetheless, rising food and energy prices continue to put pressure on household purchasing power across several economies.