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The UK economy continues to avoid recession, although new forecasts indicate increasing pressure from global energy disruptions. EY increased its growth projection for 2026 to 0.9% from 0.8% in May and maintained its 2027 baseline at 1.2%. This forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by September, resulting in reduced tanker traffic. EY’s downside scenario estimates 0.5% growth this year and a 0.2% contraction in 2027.