PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might reduce its daily vessel traffic to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought persists, according to its new head. Ilya Espino de Marotta, who assumed leadership on Sept. 7, highlighted the possibility amid El Niño’s impact on reservoir levels. The canal requires freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already implemented phased capacity reductions due to below-average rainfall across the watershed.
As of Sept. 3, the canal’s schedule included nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 capacity. From Sept. 15 onward, Panamax availability is expected to decrease to 23 slots, reducing the overall daily capacity to 32. These steps follow diminished rainfall during Panama’s wet season and reduced water inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water, officials are employing measures such as tighter booking controls and water-saving strategies, closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 daily transits through June 30, based on official operational figures. Between October and June, the canal recorded 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures preceded the latest decline in rainfall, which has led to stricter operational limits. The waterway connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, facilitating key trade routes for containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water scarcity leads to tighter transit quotas
The operation of the canal’s locks depends on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during each crossing, meaning reservoir levels directly influence vessel capacity during extended dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits declined to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s levels fell to unusually low points. Capacity subsequently increased once rainfall improved and conservation efforts helped maintain water availability for both canal operations and public use.
In addition, the canal has modified vessel draft limits as part of its water management efforts. On Sept. 4, authorities postponed a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The existing 48-foot limit remains after reviewing Gatun Lake’s current levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits restrict how deeply vessels can be loaded, making them a crucial factor in operating vessels carrying heavier cargoes.
Changes to booking procedures amid capacity limitations
With capacity constraints, the canal has also revised its booking and auction policies. Daily auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, full container ships with the highest load capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Officials are encouraging vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as reduced capacity can lead to longer waiting times. A confirmed reservation remains the only assured method of securing a transit date.
At present, no further reduction to 29 ships per day has been mandated. The administrator indicated that such a limit could be imposed in February or March if drought conditions continue without relief. Experts overseeing the canal are closely monitoring rainfall patterns, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing additional operational adjustments. Furthermore, the canal is advancing the Río Indio reservoir project to increase long-term water storage capacity, part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure sufficient water supplies for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.